Does the Bull Market Still have Room to Run? Investors Look for Evidence
Of course, we have a long way to go before we know how strong first quarter earnings will be. And in the week ahead, the banking industry has another chance to impress with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley among others scheduled to report. But the banks have been lackluster performers lately. Along with technology stocks, the banks helped drive the market recovery from the early February low. But for both, that rally ended in the second week of March after the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs raised concerns about the impact on world growth. Both sectors fell sharply for the next two weeks, where they joined the rest of the market which had, for the most part, remained weak since February.
Since that March 23 low, the overall market has managed a modest gain of 2.6 percent, but banks have been no better than a less than market performer, up 2.4 percent. Technology stocks, in contrast, are higher by 3.2 percent since March 23. If the economy picks up as expected, so too could loan growth, which in fairness has climbed in three of the past four quarters, and monthly since last November, although the pace is modest. A steeper yield curve would also help. But the reaction to Friday’s earnings reports suggests that investors want to see hard evidence, not just expectations.
Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Becomes More of a Concern
Also last week, the March Core Consumer Price index showed a sharp increase. The year-over-year rate rose to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent in February. Core inflation has been trending higher since last August, but the March increase accelerated the process. And the next four monthly reports will be replacing modest 0.1 percent increases from last year, so by summer inflation could be more of a concern than it is today. And concerning the headline level, energy prices have been moving higher as well and are currently at their highest level in three years. Producer prices rose at the fastest pace in six years as well last month.
Geopolitical concerns also ratcheted higher last week, as the U.S., along with France and the U.K. launched a retaliatory missile strike against Syria in response to a suspected chemical attack on civilians. The strike came in the early hours on Saturday, too late to have a market impact, and the U.N. subsequently rejected a Russian resolution of condemnation. In Monday trading, stocks in Japan were higher overnight and were slightly higher in Europe halfway through the trading day. Bond yields were higher, and oil and the dollar were lower. U.S. equity futures were pointing higher.
Investors will Watch for Earnings Reports and Economic Data this Week
First up on this week’s economic calendar is the March retail sales report. Retail sales have fallen in each of the past three months, so this will be watched closely. In fairness, retail sales surged in the prior three months, between September and November, but have since languished. Given the high level of employment this would seem to be a temporary phenomenon, and personal consumption will be a critical component if higher growth expectations in the months ahead are to be realized. Also on this week’s calendar are housing starts and permits and existing home sales. It is worth noting that the average rate nationally on a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently 4.42 percent, up from 3.95 percent on January 4 (according to the St. Louis Fed Reserve). Industrial production, leading indicators and flash manufacturing activity are also scheduled.
But the primary focus this week will be on earnings. Beyond the remainder of the banking sector, other heavyweights will weigh in, including Netflix, J&J, American Express, Honeywell, Proctor and Gamble, and GE. Lower tax rates will be an obvious influence, but just as important will be disclosures regarding management’s plans for their expected increase in cash flow, whether reinvested or directed toward buybacks and dividend increases. Also of note will be the expressed level of concern regarding trade tensions and its impact on their planning.
Notwithstanding Friday’s lackluster price action in stocks, they did post a gain for the full week, for just the second time in the past five, and the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 has so far provided major support. The VIX index also fell for just the second week in the past five. And investor sentiment continued to drop. According the American Association of Individual Investors, bullish sentiment is currently at its lowest since last August. The same decline is reflected in the Investor Intelligence bull/bear ratio. This set of conditions could be conducive to a modest rebound in stocks if earnings ultimately deliver as promised.
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
S&P 500 Index: Is an unmanaged capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Consumer Price Index is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is a widely used measure of market risk. It shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. The VIX is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
The information and opinions in this article are compiled from third party sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Ameriprise Financial. The information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual investor.
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- Chief Market Strategist, Ameriprise Financial
- More than 30 years of experience in the investment management industry
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