Keeping an Eye on Economic Fundamentals and Earnings
International markets fared even better than those in the U.S. In dollar terms, the MSCI EAFE index rose 1.3 percent and is higher on the year by 3.4 percent. And the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 2.5 percent for the week and since the start of the year has climbed 6.2 percent.
Earnings and Bonds Remain top of Mind
Fourth quarter earnings continued to modestly exceed expectations. With about one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported, Factset now projects growth of 4.2 percent, up from 3.1 percent at the start of the quarter. Research firm Evercore ISI forecasts that earnings growth in the quarter could be as high as 8.0 percent. Companies beating analysts’ forecasts last week included Boeing, Alibaba, Caterpillar, Intel and Microsoft. Missing expectations were Verizon and Chevron. Notables expected to report in the week ahead include Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Pfizer, Merck, Exxon Mobil and Visa.
The yield on the ten-year note rose just one basis point on the week, to 2.48 percent. However, it had fallen seven basis points on Monday, to 2.40 percent, before reversing that move following the president’s pipeline executive order. For the week, the two to ten-year spread narrowed one basis point to close at 126.
High yield bonds traced a path similar to equities last week. After rising for five straight trading days through last Monday, during which the yield to maturity on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II index climbed from 6.26 to 6.31 percent, the index rallied sharply pushing the yield to maturity down to 6.21 percent by week’s end. That four day rally lowered the option adjusted spread to treasuries by 17 basis points to 393, the lowest since September, 2014.
A Week Full of Economic Data Ahead
The advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP was a disappointment. The reported pace of 1.9 percent annualized growth was below expectations of 2.2 percent, and well below the 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter. Net exports subtracted 1.7 percent from the total, although this was related to a 0.9 percent contribution in the previous quarter, owing to a large spike in agricultural exports. Inventory accumulation added a full percent to the total. Personal consumption rose by a decent 2.5 percent, although that was the weakest performance since the year’s first quarter, and business investment in equipment rose after four quarters of declines. For the year, dragged lower by the anemic growth of the first half, GDP totaled 1.6 percent, subject to subsequent fourth quarter revisions. This matches the 1.6 percent growth of 2011, the slowest of this recovery.
The economic calendar in the week ahead is full. On Wednesday, the Fed concludes its latest meeting. And while the Fed is not expected to announce any change to policy, coming so soon after its December meeting when it did raise the overnight rate, its statement will be eagerly awaited, especially to see if it hints at any anticipated future action. On Friday, the January jobs report is expected to show ongoing strength in the labor market. The Bloomberg consensus anticipates the creation of 175,000 new non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.7 percent. Also on the calendar are December readings on personal income, spending and prices, ISM manufacturing and services, pending home sales, consumer confidence, construction spending, motor vehicle sales and factory orders.
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The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is a widely used measure of market risk. It shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. The VIX is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
The S&P 500 is an index containing the stocks of 500 large-cap corporations, most of which are American. The index is the most notable of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill.
MSCI-EAFE High Dividend Yield Index: Is constructed from various MSCI Country and Regional Indices that are calculated according to the MSCI Global Investable Market Indices Methodology. The MSCI High Dividend Yield Index may be calculated for all MSCI Developed Markets countries.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch High-Yield Bond Master II Index is an unmanaged index that tracks the performance of below investment grade U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.
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- Chief Market Strategist, Ameriprise Financial
- More than 30 years of experience in the investment management industry
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